Why Consider Adding a Category 6 to the Hurricane Scale?
Whether you live near the coast or not, you’re likely familiar with the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. As storms develop and intensify, meteorologists and news anchors often announce updates like, “The storm is now a Category 1, but it’s expected to reach Category 3 later this week.”
Hurricanes are rated from Category 1 to 5 based on their wind speeds, with Category 5 indicating the most intense. However, as climate change drives hurricanes to become more powerful and frequent, some experts are proposing the introduction of a Category 6, according to a new study.
“We identified five storms that would have exceeded this proposed Category 6 threshold, all of which occurred after 2013,” said Michael Wehner, the study’s lead author and a senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in an interview with CBS News.
The study also highlights a marked rise in hurricane wind speeds since 1982, suggesting that records will continue to be broken as global temperatures increase.
How are Hurricanes Currently Rated?
The current Saffir-Simpson scale, developed in the 1960s and refined in the 1970s, ranks hurricanes based on their highest sustained wind speed, averaged over one minute at 10 meters (about 32 feet) above the ground. This five-point scale is used worldwide, including by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Florida. The scale was designed to better communicate a storm's potential damage to the public.
Here’s the breakdown of the current scale:
- Category 1: Winds of 74–95 mph. Some damage.
- Category 2: Winds of 96–110 mph. Extensive damage.
- Category 3: Winds of 111–129 mph. Devastating damage.
- Category 4: Winds of 130–156 mph. Catastrophic damage.
- Category 5: Winds of 157+ mph. Catastrophic damage.
What Would a Category 6 Storm Look Like?
The study proposes defining Category 6 storms as those with sustained winds exceeding 192 mph, whereas Category 5 would be revised to include hurricanes with wind speeds between 157 and 192 mph.
Category 6 storms are currently rare but not impossible. For instance, Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in 2013 with winds of 195 mph, would fall under this category. Similarly, Hurricane Patricia, which hit Mexico in 2015 with wind speeds of 215 mph, would also qualify. Patricia was the most powerful storm ever recorded, and it intensified at an unprecedented rate, gaining 105 mph in wind speed over just two days.
Researchers warn that climate change is fueling the increase in powerful storms. As global temperatures rise, so does the moisture and energy available to hurricanes, leading to stronger and more frequent storms.
The study used simulations based on various global warming scenarios. It concluded that the likelihood of seeing a Category 6 hurricane has "increased dramatically and will continue to rise with climate change."
The Future of the Hurricane Scale
The National Hurricane Center, responsible for official category designations in the U.S. and its territories, has yet to comment on the idea of adding a Category 6. However, as hurricanes become larger and intensify more rapidly, the debate over the necessity of this new category is expected to grow.
একটি মন্তব্য পোস্ট করুন